Rochester gun violence falls to pre-pandemic levels

Mayor Evans reveals steep declines in shootings, homicides, all serious crimes at public safety update

Mayor Malik D. Evans announced today that gun violence in Rochester is continuing on a precipitous decline with the number of shootings falling to pre-pandemic levels.

“I am gratified by these numbers because they show us that our strategies to reduce violence, especially gun violence, are working,” said Mayor Evans. “But I am not satisfied, because numbers aren’t the goal. The goal is to make Rochester a safer city where perception matches reality and people not only are safe, but feel safe.”

The rolling 365-day average of shootings shows firearm assaults have fallen by more than half from the peak violence seen during the pandemic, from about 430 in 2021 and early 2022 to about 210 this week.

“On a human scale that decline cannot be underestimated,” said Mayor Evans. “That’s more than 200 people who did not experience the trauma of gun violence; 200 families who did not experience the trauma of losing a loved one to gun violence or supporting a loved one whose life has been permanently altered by gun violence. That’s more than 200 incidents of violence that didn’t happen and won’t spark the cycle of retaliation that drives more gun violence."

The rolling 365-day average calculates the average number of firearm related assaults that occurred during the 365-day period that ends with each day. It is one of the Rochester Police Department’s most useful measures of violent crime because it eliminates many of the variables that occur in a calendar year.

Another metric with inherent standardizations, the five-year average, also reveals ongoing reductions in all Part 1 crimes, or the most serious crimes as defined by the FBI.

As of the end of August, Rochester’s Part 1 crime rate in 2024 is down 20 percent from the average of those months from 2019 through 2023; murders are down 18 percent, total violent crime is down 8 percent and property crimes have fallen 22 percent.

Mayor Evans revealed the decline in violent crime and gun violence Thursday at one of the periodic Public Safety Updates he’s held with members of his senior management team since he declared a Gun Violence State of Emergency in July, 2022.

During the news conference, Police Chief David Smith reported that homicides so far this year are down to 42 from 49 during the same period last year; and the number of shooting victims is down from 234 at this point last year to 156 currently.

So far this year, Rochester police officers have made 750 arrests for crimes related to criminal possession of a weapon and have recovered 573 illegal firearms.

Corporation Counsel Patrick Beath said that so far this year, the City Law Department has employed the additional regulatory powers of the Gun Violence State of Emergency to close nine locations and entered into three significant nuisance-abatement agreements with locations that were identified with links to violent crime.

Dr. Shirley Green, Commissioner of the Department of Recreation and Human Services, said the program to provide mental health counseling services for youth in four City R-Centers is providing significant insight into the nature of trauma that city youth are experiencing in their homes and neighborhoods.

From April to June of this year, the counselors engaged with 178 youth for a total number of 5,136 encounters. Almost 98 percent of these engagements were self-referrals, with youth seeking out the services of the counselors themselves.

Topics of discussion have included anger management; bullying; relationships and decision-making skills.